A test for India’s foreign policy

 

While new information continues to reveal the extent of the environmental disaster at Fukushima, and countries all over the world review their nuclear energy plans and safety measures, the Indian government still pushes ahead with it’s fiercely opposed Jaitapur plant, posing a major risks to the region.

Have our rulers decided to place India on the wrong side of history and arrest her social progress? Going by their policy of forcibly promoting nuclear power regardless of its hazards, environmental damage potential, high economic and social costs, and unpopularity, that seems to be the case.

Eight weeks into the Fukushima disaster—which coincides with the 25th anniversary of the world’s worst-ever industrial accident, at Chernobyl—it is clear the world is moving away from nuclear power and embracing renewable energy as never before. The number of nuclear reactors in the world has fallen to 437 from its 2002 peak (444). Nuclear electricity generation has annually declined by 2 percent over the past four years and now only accounts for 5.5 percent of the world’s primary energy.

Globally, annual renewables capacity additions have outpaced nuclear start-ups for 15 years. In 2010, for the first time, worldwide cumulative installed capacity of wind turbines, small hydro, biomass and solar power reached 381,000 MW, outpacing the installed nuclear capacity of 375,000 MW prior to Fukushima.

The global nuclear industry faces a bleak future. It was making losses despite huge subsidies for more than a quarter-century. The US, with the most reactors in the world (104), hasn’t ordered a single new reactor since 1973. Western Europe—including France, the world’s Number Two in number of reactors (58)—hasn’t completed a new reactor since Chernobyl.

With Fukushima came the turn of the world’s third-most nuclear country, Japan (55 reactors). Japan has written off four reactors and is radically reviewing the over-optimistic assumptions underlying its nuclear programme. Country after country is pausing, auditing or cancelling its nuclear power programme—including the US, the European Union, even China. Italy and Austria have opted out altogether. Germany has shut down seven reactors and will rapidly phase out the remaining 10.

Only Russia says it will proceed with its nuclear power plans. Russia is where the Chernobyl design originated. Russia isn’t known for high industrial safety. Besides, it’s oil- and gas-rich and unlikely to expand nuclear power greatly.

India wouldn’t enhance its stature or energy security by joining the camp of Russia, and possibly, China. China may eventually revoke the present moratorium on 38 reactors, but it knows that nuclear power, even if it expands, will only form about 7 percent of its electricity generation, and under 3 percent of its primary energy production by 2030.

Praful Bidwai

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